Ghana’s economy is expected to remain largely resilient despite the ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran, supported by strong gold export earnings, according to Fitch Solutions.
In its latest analysis, the research firm said elevated global gold prices and steady foreign exchange inflows would help shield the country from external shocks linked to the conflict.
Although gold prices have fallen by about 14% since the conflict escalated in late February 2026, Fitch noted that prices remain historically high. As of 27 March, spot gold stood at around $4,413 per ounce—almost three times the average price recorded between 2015 and 2024.
Fitch forecasts that gold will average $4,600 per ounce in 2026, marking the highest annual level on record and significantly above the 2025 average.
“We believe that Ghana’s economy will remain relatively insulated from the fallout of the US–Iran conflict as it benefits from elevated gold prices,” the firm said.
It added that strong export-related foreign exchange inflows, coupled with Ghana’s broadly neutral position in oil trade, would help ease pressure on the country’s external accounts and the cedi.
The report also pointed to earlier fiscal consolidation efforts and a new gold royalty regime as factors likely to keep government finances stable.
As Africa’s largest gold exporter, Ghana is expected to see increased dollar inflows, supported by a projected 7.1% rise in gold production. Output growth is anticipated from major mines including Bibiani, Chirano and Namdini.
Fitch estimates that gold export revenues will rise by nearly 13% to $23.7bn, equivalent to about 1.5% of gross domestic product—well above the long-term average.
Meanwhile, Ghana’s hydrocarbons trade is projected to remain broadly balanced, meaning recent increases in global energy prices are unlikely to significantly affect the country’s current account.
