Mussa Dankwah Reviews NPP Primaries Results, Assesses Poll Accuracy
Founder of Global Info Analytics, Mussa Dankwah, has released a brief postmortem analysis of the recently held NPP primaries, highlighting the performance of key candidates against pre-election predictions.
In a Facebook post, Dankwah noted that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) closely matched the poll projections, underperforming by just 0.5 percent, which falls within the margin of error.
However, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong (KOA) recorded a larger shortfall, underperforming predictions by 4.5 percent, placing him about 1.5 percent outside the margin of error.
According to Dankwah, this outcome supports earlier observations that KOA’s support base was unstable in the final weeks of the campaign, a situation worsened by the circulation of an “insult video,” which he said influenced undecided voters and altered the expected trend of the race.
Dankwah further revealed that Dr. Bryan Acheampong (DBA) emerged as the only candidate to outperform the predictions, exceeding projections by 5.5 percent, though still marginally outside the margin of error.
He attributed this to DBA’s growing favourability ratings, which made him a preferred choice among undecided delegates.
Tracking data, he explained, showed that DBA’s favourability rose sharply by 5.4 points in the final four weeks of the campaign, compared to increases of 2.1 points for DMB and just 0.1 for KOA.
Addressing claims that KOA could not perform worse than his 2023 results due to perceived establishment opposition, Dankwah stressed that no two elections are the same and urged political analysts to consider changing variables across electoral cycles.
He also clarified the distinction between pollsters and researchers, explaining that pollsters provide data trends while researchers conduct deeper analysis into the reasons behind voter behavior.
Dankwah advised aspiring party researchers not to confuse opinion polls with in-depth research, noting that both serve different objectives.
Source: www.kumasimail.com
