A new nationwide telephone poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics indicates that National Democratic Congress (NDC) Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia is currently leading the race to become the party’s flagbearer for the 2028 elections, though the gap is narrowing as Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson emerges as a significant challenger.
The baseline and first tracking polls, conducted between March 31 and April 9, 2026, sampled about 10,400 NDC delegates across all 16 regions using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI), with a 99% confidence level and a margin of error between ±1.7% and ±1.9%.
Asiedu Nketia Leads, but Margin Shrinks
According to the aggregated results, Asiedu Nketia leads with 29%, followed by Ato Forson with 19%. Other contenders include Haruna Iddrisu (11%), Julius Debrah (8%), and Prof. Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang (8%). About 24% of delegates remain undecided, while 1% support other candidates.
The poll shows a tightening race, with Forson closing a previously wider gap. In the initial baseline survey, Asiedu Nketia led Forson by 16 percentage points, but that advantage reduced to 10 points in the follow-up tracking poll as undecided delegates shifted toward the Finance Minister.
Rising Competition Among Top Contenders
While Asiedu Nketia maintains his lead, the poll indicates that all major candidates except him recorded gains in the second wave. Forson increased his support by 7 percentage points, Haruna Iddrisu by 4 points, and both Julius Debrah and Prof. Opoku-Agyemang by 2 points each, while Asiedu Nketia recorded only a marginal 1-point increase. Undecided delegates fell by 12 percentage points.
Head-to-Head Matchups Show Competitive Field
In simulated head-to-head contests, Asiedu Nketia maintains an edge but faces closer margins against key rivals:
- Against Haruna Iddrisu: Asiedu Nketia leads 42% to 22%, with 36% undecided
- Against Julius Debrah: Asiedu Nketia leads 43% to 18%, with 39% undecided
- Against Ato Forson: the race tightens significantly, with Asiedu Nketia at 37% and Forson at 32%, while 31% remain undecided
In another direct matchup, Ato Forson leads Haruna Iddrisu 42% to 19%, with 39% undecided, suggesting Forson’s rising competitiveness within the delegate base.
Delegates Prioritise Performance and Leadership Qualities
The survey shows that delegates are primarily focused on performance (74%) in selecting a successor to former President John Mahama. Other key considerations include being visionary (53%), serving government well (35%), party loyalty (20%), and personality (20%). Youthful leadership (8%), gender (1%), and ethnicity (1%) were less significant factors.
Grassroots Concerns Over Jobs
The poll also highlights significant grassroots concerns within the party, with 78% of delegates expressing worry about unemployment and job opportunities. However, optimism remains high, as 88% believe the situation will improve in the near future, compared to 3% who are pessimistic.
Regional and Demographic Trends
The findings also point to varying regional dynamics, with Asiedu Nketia maintaining strength in several blocs but facing stronger competition from Ato Forson in key swing areas. Forson recorded notable gains across regions, while undecided voters declined significantly across all blocs.
Demographically, the sample shows a predominantly male delegate base (77%), with most respondents aged between 25 and 54. The majority are employed (68%) and identify as Christian (70%).
Conclusion
While Asiedu Nketia remains the frontrunner in the race to lead the NDC into the 2028 elections, the latest tracking data suggests a highly fluid contest, with Ato Forson rapidly consolidating support and closing the gap. With a large portion of delegates still undecided, analysts say the race remains open and could shift significantly in the coming months.
Attach is the full report:
Source: www.kumasimail.com
