A recent poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics has revealed significant shifts in voter preferences across the Ashanti, Ahafo, and Bono regions, highlighting challenges for the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) ahead of the 2024 elections.
The survey, conducted between November 18 and November 19, 2024, shows that the NPP’s candidate, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB), maintains a commanding lead in the Ashanti region, historically a stronghold for the party. However, the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, John Dramani Mahama (JDM), is gaining traction with nearly 30% support, casting doubt on the NPP’s ambitious target of securing 85% of the vote in the region.
Regional Breakdown
Ashanti Region:
- DMB (NPP): 68%
- JDM (NDC): 29%
- AKK (CPP): 1.3%
- NKB (PPP): 1.0%
- Others: 0.7%
The Ashanti region poll sampled 3,593 respondents with a confidence level of 99% and a margin of error of ±2.10%.
Ahafo Region:
- DMB (NPP): 47.8%
- JDM (NDC): 39.5%
- Christian Kwame Andrew (GUM): 4%
- AKK (CPP): 2.2%
- NKB (PPP): 3.8%
- Others: 2.7%
DMB’s lead in Ahafo is narrower, with JDM closely trailing. The poll sampled 387 respondents with a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error of ±4.88%.
Bono Region:
- DMB (NPP): 51.7%
- JDM (NDC): 37.6%
- AKK (CPP): 3.6%
- NKB (PPP): 6.6%
- Others: 0.5%
The Bono region survey, conducted with 797 respondents, also placed DMB in the lead but with a smaller margin. The confidence level was 95%, with a margin of error of ±3.40%.
First-Time Voter Preferences
Among first-time voters in the three regions, DMB leads with 64%, followed by JDM at 26%. Smaller party candidates, including AKK (2.6%) and NKB (5.8%), garnered minimal support, while 1.9% preferred other candidates.
Top Voter Issues
The survey underscores the economy, jobs, and education as the dominant concerns across the three regions.
- In the Ahafo region, the economy tops at 16%, followed by jobs and education at 13% each.
- In the Ashanti region, jobs are the top priority at 20%, with the economy and education tied at 16% each.
- In the Bono region, jobs rank highest at 24%, followed by the economy (20%) and education (17%).
Voter Influences
Economic conditions remain a critical determinant for voter choice:
- In Ahafo, economic conditions lead with 45%, followed by manifesto considerations (19%) and education (6%).
- In Ashanti, manifesto considerations are most influential at 27%, while economic conditions follow at 25%, with jobs at 13%.
- In Bono, economic conditions dominate at 35%, tied with manifesto and education at 17% each.
Survey Methodology
The poll deployed Computer-Assisted Personal Interviews (CATI) using the 2024 Electoral Commission register as a sampling frame. Constituencies sampled included 47 in Ashanti, 6 in Ahafo, and 12 in Bono.
Implications
The results signal a potentially closer contest in regions where the NPP has historically enjoyed dominance. With economic challenges and manifesto promises weighing heavily on voter decisions, both the NPP and NDC face uphill battles to solidify support in the months leading up to the 2024 elections.
This poll offers a snapshot of voter sentiment and key issues likely to shape the electoral landscape in the three regions.
Below is the full report:
Source: www.kumasimail.com
