Executive Director of Global Info Analytics, Mr. Mussa Dankwa, has projected a convincing victory for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Baba Jamal, in Tuesday’s crucial Ayawaso East by-election.
In a post shared on his official Facebook page, Mr. Dankwa revealed findings from the final pre-election survey conducted by his outfit between February 28 and March 1, 2026.
The poll sampled 972 registered voters in the constituency, with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.05%.
According to the survey, “NDC’s Baba Jamal is likely to win with 75% of the votes, slightly higher than what the former MP secured in the 2024 parliamentary elections,” Mr. Dankwa stated.
He recalled that in the 2024 general elections, then-incumbent MP Hon. Naser Toure polled about 71% while the New Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate, Zak Rahman, obtained 29%.
The new poll suggests the NPP could perform worse in this by-election, with its candidate, Baba Ali, projected to receive only 21% of the votes, a drop of nearly 8 percentage points compared to 2024.
“The NPP is likely to underperform in the by-election as Baba Ali is predicted to secure only 21%,” the survey summary read.
The poll further showed that independent candidate Umaru Sanda Mohammed, a former member of the NDC who broke away to contest on his own, is poised to receive just 3% of the total votes cast.
In a follow-up post, Mr. Dankwa provided additional insights into voter behavior ahead of the polls. He revealed that “4% of NPP voters are expected to back Baba Jamal, while 6% will support independent candidate Umaru Sanda.”
However, the survey also points to a shift among floating voters, some of whom are reportedly moving toward the NPP candidate, a development Mr. Dankwa described as “a possible protest vote against the NDC’s internal primary processes.”
Despite that, the data suggest that floating voters who have traditionally supported the NDC since the 2024 general elections may still tilt the results further in Baba Jamal’s favor.
The Ayawaso East by-election is being closely watched as the first major parliamentary contest of 2026, with implications for both major political parties in Accra’s political landscape.
