A new opinion poll has recorded a decline in declared support for the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC), alongside gains for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and voters who identify as floating or do not disclose their political affiliation.
According to the poll, NDC affiliation fell from 47% in June 2026 to 36% in September, while NPP affiliation increased marginally from 26% to 28%.
The proportion of floating voters also rose from 15% in June to 20% in September, while respondents who declined to disclose their party affiliation increased from 8% to 13%.
The poll further found regional variations in party affiliation. It put the NPP ahead in the Ashanti Region with 34%, the North East with 58%, Oti with 35% and Western North with 57%.
The NDC and NPP were reported to be tied in Bono, Eastern and Savannah, while the NDC led in the remaining regions.
Views on democracy
On perceptions of Ghana’s democracy under the administration of President John Dramani Mahama, 49% of respondents said they did not believe democracy was under attack, while 40% said they believed it was under attack. Another 10% expressed no opinion.
Ato Forson leads NDC leadership preference
The poll also measured preferences for potential candidates in the race to lead the NDC ahead of the 2028 general election.
Among general voters, Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson led the multicandidate field with 37%, followed by NDC Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia with 27% and Education Minister Haruna Iddrisu with 16%.
Professor Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang recorded 9%, while Julius Debrah polled 5%, Joshua Alabi 3%, and Eric Opoku and Armah Kofi-Buah 2% each.
Among NDC voters, Dr Ato Forson recorded 47%, compared with 29% for Mr Asiedu Nketia and 12% for Mr Haruna Iddrisu. Prof. Opoku-Agyemang recorded 5%, Julius Debrah 4%, Joshua Alabi 2%, while Eric Opoku and Armah Kofi-Buah each recorded 1%.
Among card-bearing NDC members, Dr Ato Forson led with 40%, followed by Mr Asiedu Nketia with 30% and Mr Haruna Iddrisu with 15%. Prof. Opoku-Agyemang recorded 7%, Julius Debrah 5%, with the remaining candidates accounting for 3%.
In a head-to-head matchup between Dr Ato Forson and Mr Asiedu Nketia among NDC voters, the poll recorded 63% for Dr Ato Forson and 37% for Mr Asiedu Nketia.
The poll reported Dr Ato Forson leading Mr Asiedu Nketia across the swing, Akan and Volta/Oti blocs. In the northern bloc, Mr Asiedu Nketia was ahead of Dr Ato Forson, although Mr Haruna Iddrisu led the bloc.
In a separate head-to-head analysis among NDC voters, Dr Ato Forson was reported to lead Mr Asiedu Nketia across all four regional blocs, with the largest reported margins in the swing and Akan regions.
2028 presidential scenarios
The poll also tested possible 2028 presidential matchups.
In a three-way scenario involving Dr Ato Forson, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia and Kennedy Agyapong, Dr Ato Forson recorded 53%, compared with 38% for Dr Bawumia and 4% for Mr Agyapong.
When Mr Agyapong was excluded from the scenario, Dr Ato Forson’s figure rose to 55%, while Dr Bawumia’s increased to 39%.
A separate scenario involving Mr Asiedu Nketia, Dr Bawumia and Mr Agyapong produced a closer result, with Mr Asiedu Nketia at 48%, Dr Bawumia at 41% and Mr Agyapong at 4%.
Without Mr Agyapong in that scenario, Mr Asiedu Nketia recorded 49% and Dr Bawumia 41%, according to the poll.
These figures represent scenarios tested by the poll and should not be interpreted as predictions of the outcome of the 2028 election.
Candidate and party favourability
For the first time, according to the poll, respondents were asked to rate the favourability of major political figures and the two main political parties.
Dr Ato Forson recorded the highest net favourability rating among the personalities measured, at +27 percentage points, followed by Mr Asiedu Nketia at +19 and Dr Bawumia at +1. Alan Kyerematen recorded -28.
Among floating or independent voters, Dr Ato Forson recorded a net favourability rating of +35, followed by Mr Asiedu Nketia at +23. Dr Bawumia recorded -2, while Mr Kyerematen recorded -9.
The NDC recorded a net favourability rating of +29, compared with +2 for the NPP.
Among floating or independent voters, the NDC recorded +40 and the NPP +1.
First-time candidates
The survey also examined whether voters believe a candidate contesting an election for the first time can win an election in Ghana.
Some 46% of respondents said a first-time candidate can win, while 34% disagreed and 20% expressed no opinion.
Among NPP voters, 36% said a first-time candidate can win, compared with 59% of NDC voters and 44% of floating voters.
Methodology
The poll was conducted between September 1 and 22, 2026, using both online and face-to-face interviews.
It had a total sample size of 8,951 respondents, comprising 1,182 online responses and 7,769 face-to-face interviews.
The online component covered all 16 regions using regional quota limits, while the face-to-face component covered all 16 regions and 83 constituencies, using probability random sampling with regional and constituency quotas.
The sampling frame was based on the Electoral Commission’s 2024 electoral register.
The poll reported a 99% confidence level, with margins of error of ±3.5% for the online sample and ±1.5% for the face-to-face sample.
The responses were weighted using the Electoral Commission’s electoral register and a 50:50 gender split.
The poll organisers cautioned that, because of rounding, some totals may be slightly above or below 100%.
Below is the full report …
Source: www.kumasimail.com
