Ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel and LPG are expected to increase in the first pricing window of December 2025, driven by rising international product prices and a marginal depreciation of the cedi, according to the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC).
Petrol prices are projected to rise by 1.97%–3.30%, diesel by 2.85%–5.15%, and LPG by 1.50%–3.10%.
The expected price hikes come despite a slight decline in crude oil prices late November 2025.
Brent crude dipped by 2.40%, falling from $64.67 to $63.12 per barrel.
The decline was attributed to progress in peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, which heightened expectations that Russian supply would remain stable.
However, refined petroleum products moved in the opposite direction. International prices for petrol rose by 1.26%, diesel increased by 2.28%, and LPG inched up by 0.07%. COMAC warns that diesel may face additional upward pressure in the coming weeks due to supply-related uncertainties.
Cedi Depreciation Adds Pressure
Local fuel prices are also being impacted by the weakening currency. In the current pricing window, the cedi slipped from GHS 10.94 to GHS 11.14 per dollar — a 1.76% depreciation.
Analysts attribute the pressure to increased corporate demand for forex and typical year-end market tightening.
Taxes and Levies Remain Significant Cost Drivers
Taxes, statutory levies and regulatory margins continue to constitute a major portion of ex-pump prices, with COMAC noting that petroleum products remain heavily taxed to support government revenue, infrastructure development and regulatory functions.
Two major tax policy changes have been implemented in 2025:
- Energy Sector Shortfall and Debt Repayment Levy (ESSDRL) — A 1-cedi levy introduced on 16 July 2025 under Act 1141 to address energy sector debts and shortfalls.
- Energy Sector Levies (Amendment) (No. 2) Act, 2025 (Act 1145) — Effective 1 September 2025, increased the ESSDRL on Marine Gas Oil (MGO–Local) and introduced two additional taxes:
- Road Fund Levy, to support road maintenance
- Energy Fund Levy, to finance Energy Commission programmes
These changes form part of measures to curb abuse associated with Marine Gas Oil subsidies and to strengthen sector regulation.
Breakdown of Levies and Margins
According to the Energy Sector Levies Act, 2025 (Act 1141) and NPA regulations (L.I. 2186), consumers currently pay:
- 427 pesewas per litre on petrol
- 425 pesewas per litre on diesel
- 215.78 pesewas per kilogram on LPG
These cover the ESSDRL, Road Fund Levy, Energy Fund Levy, Special Petroleum Tax, transport and distribution margins, BOST margin, fuel marking margin, and the Unified Petroleum Price Fund (UPPF), among others.
COMAC estimates that taxes, levies and margins constitute about 26% of total ex-pump prices, while marketers and dealers’ margins account for 4%, with the remaining 70% representing the ex-refinery price.
Outlook
With international petroleum product prices rising and the cedi showing signs of renewed weakness, consumers should expect modest adjustments at the pumps between 1–15 December 2025.
COMAC noted that while the increases are marginal, global market volatility, local currency performance and adjustments in statutory levies will remain key determinants of fuel pricing in the coming months.
Source: www.kumasimail.com
