In just over 24 hours, Scotland’s chances of reaching the World Cup knockouts for the first time have dropped from 42% to just 5.26%.
They require four teams to finish third in their groups but have a worse record than them – and results elsewhere have not helped Steve Clarke’s side’s hopes.
Losing 3-0 to Brazil in their final group-stage game dealt a substantial blow to their chances as they only managed to pick up three points from the group stage, whereas four would likely have sent them through.
Worse is the impact of the extent of their defeat. It has left Scotland with a goal difference of -3, which makes it trickier for them to finish with a better record than many other third-placed sides.
What has changed and how could Scotland still progress?
First, South Africa beat South Korea 1-0 to snatch one of the top two places in their group, meaning South Korea – who have a better goal difference than Scotland – dropped to third.
After that, Ecuador produced an unexpected 2-1 victory over Germany to finish third in their group with four points and seal a spot in the last 32.
Sweden then held Japan to a 1-1 draw, also qualifying from third place with four points.
Scotland were down to an 6.89% chance of qualification after that, according to Opta, but are now down to 5.49% after Paraguay played out a stalemate with Australia which suited both sides.
Those results leave Scotland sitting eighth out of the 12 current third-placed sides and on the brink of missing out on a knockout spot.
If teams in the third-place standings finish level on points, the rankings are then decided by goal difference.
That means Scotland will need to hope that at least four third-placed teams do not manage to reach three points, or they do so with a worse goal difference than them.
As it stands, there are four teams ranked below Scotland who have only played two matches, while there are two others who are level on points with a game to play.
Best third-placed teams
Top eight go through
| Pos. | Team | Group | Games played | Points | GD | Next game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | F | 3 | 4 | 0 | – |
| 2 | Ecuador | E | 3 | 4 | 0 | – |
| 3 | Bosnia | B | 3 | 4 | -1 | – |
| 4 | Paraguay | D | 3 | 4 | -2 | – |
| 5 | Croatia | L | 2 | 3 | -1 | Sat, 22:00 |
| 6 | South Korea | A | 3 | 3 | -1 | – |
| 7 | Algeria | J | 2 | 3 | -2 | Sun, 03:00 |
| 8 | Scotland | C | 3 | 3 | -3 | – |
| 9 | Cape Verde | H | 2 | 2 | 0 | Sat, 01:00 |
| 10 | Belgium | G | 2 | 2 | 0 | Sat, 04:00 |
| 11 | DR Congo | K | 2 | 2 | 0 | Sun, 00:30 |
| 12 | Senegal | I | 2 | 0 | -3 | Fri, 20:00 |
Kick-off times in BST- Figures correct as of 05:00 on 26 June
What results do Scotland need to qualify?
There are eight groups left to play, and Scotland need four third-placed teams to have a worse record than them.
It means they need a minimum of four of the following scenarios to play out:
FRIDAY
Group I: Senegal and Iraq to draw.
Or Iraq to beat Senegal by no more than two goals.
Group H: Uruguay to lose to Spain.
Group G: Iran to lose to Egypt.
SATURDAY
Group L: Croatia to lose to Ghana by at least three goals.
Group K: DR Congo v Uzbekistan to be a draw.
Or Uzbekistan to win by no more than three goals.
Group J: Austria and Algeria are on three points and a draw would send both through.
Scotland need Algeria to lose by two or more goals, or Austria to be beaten by at least four goals.
Source: BBC
