A new poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics shows that former President John Dramani Mahama is on course for a first-round victory in the December 2024 elections, as the ruling New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) candidate, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, struggles to gain momentum.
The poll, which surveyed 8,206 voters across 111 constituencies in all 16 regions of Ghana, reveals that Mahama is currently leading with 51.1% of the votes, compared to Bawumia’s 37.3%. The margin of error for the poll is ±1.49%, with a confidence level of 99%.
The poll also highlights the increasing influence of independent candidates, particularly Nana Kwame Bediako, who has gained traction in key regions.
Nana Kwame Bediako is polling at 6.2%, while another independent candidate, Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen, stands at 4.1%. Other minor candidates account for 1.3% of the vote share.
No Runoff Expected
According to Global InfoAnalytics, Mahama’s lead suggests a clear victory without the need for a runoff.
Using the committed voters’ model, Mahama holds a commanding 53%, while Bawumia remains at 36%, with Alan Kyerematen and Bediako splitting the remaining votes.
Mahama’s consistent lead across most regions indicates that the race is unlikely to require a second round of voting, as he continues to expand his support base.
In the likely voters’ model (unweighted), Mahama still leads with 49.3%, followed by Bawumia at 35.9%. Independent candidates Bediako and Kyerematen hold 6.0% and 3.9%, respectively.
While undecided voters make up 3.5%, the poll suggests that Mahama’s advantage is strong enough to avoid a runoff.
Bawumia Struggles in Strongholds as Bediako Surges
The poll reveals a significant challenge for Dr. Bawumia in key regions like Ashanti and Eastern, where the NPP has traditionally held sway.
In the Ashanti Region, Bawumia is polling at 66%, well below the NPP’s target of 85%, as Bediako captures 7% of the vote, and Mahama garners 22%.
This decline in support for the NPP in its stronghold region could prove decisive in the election outcome.
In the Eastern Region, Bawumia is leading with 42%, but Mahama is close behind with 36%, while Bediako and Kyerematen are making gains with a combined 19% of the votes.
This shift in support towards independent candidates suggests that Bawumia’s grip on the region is weakening as the election approaches.
Voter Apathy and Floating Voters
Voter apathy poses another challenge for the NPP, as 16% of those who say they will not vote are NPP supporters, compared to only 3% from the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).
Floating voters, who often decide elections, are leaning towards Mahama, with 54% backing him, compared to only 23% for Bawumia. Mahama also has an 18-point lead among voters who refuse to disclose their party affiliations, further solidifying his position.
Among first-time voters, who are critical to shaping the future political landscape, Mahama is leading with 46%, compared to Bawumia’s 38%, a significant shift from the July 2024 poll where both candidates were tied at 41%.
Regional Dynamics
The poll shows that Mahama is leading in 12 out of Ghana’s 16 regions, adding Bono Region to his column since the July 2024 poll. He has solidified his lead in key regions, including Greater Accra, Central, Western, and the Northern regions, while Bawumia holds onto Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East.
In the Greater Accra Region, 20% of voters who supported Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020 have switched their allegiance to Mahama, while in the Central Region, 37% have done the same. This trend indicates a significant erosion of support for the NPP in pivotal areas.
Economy and Leadership Drive Voter Sentiment
The economy remains the most important issue for voters, with 70% citing it as their top concern. Jobs and education follow closely behind, with 62% and 48% of voters, respectively, naming them as key issues. Mahama has a +14-point favorability rating over Bawumia in terms of party manifestos, reflecting voter confidence in his ability to address economic challenges.
Additionally, 62% of voters believe Ghana is headed in the wrong direction under the current government, with only 31% expressing optimism about the country’s trajectory. This discontent is reflected in President Akufo-Addo’s approval rating, with only 36% of voters approving of his job performance, while 59% disapprove.
Conclusion
With just two months until the December elections, John Dramani Mahama appears poised to secure a first-round victory, as Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia faces declining support in key regions and among crucial voter demographics.
Independent candidates Nana Kwame Bediako and Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen are further complicating the NPP’s path to victory, particularly in the Ashanti and Eastern regions.
As economic concerns dominate the political landscape, the NDC leader’s consistent lead in the polls suggests a likely win in one round.
Below is the full research report:
source :www.kumasimail.com
