Though anecdotal, it is safe to say that there will never be an election in Ghana where religion will not have an impact, no matter the significance of same on the outcome of the election.
It appears that in 2016, the NPP strategically picked the mantra “the battle is the Lord’s” ostensibly to identify with the Christian community who form an overwhelming majority of Ghana’s electoral base.
Politics is a numbers game! So yes, without recourse to Mussa Dankwah’s recent analysis on the likely impact of religion in the 2024 general election based on a post election survey (attached), religion will continue to impact the outcome of elections in Ghana.
The extent of such an impact, however, must be well studied and supported with empirical and incontrovertible data/evidence before analysts and researchers make seemingly conclusive statements on the subject.
Aside religion, other key determinants of voter choices in Ghana, as have been observed over decades are;
- Tribe – there are people who vote for certain candidates merely because their tribe is known to be aligned to a particular party.
- Historical antecedents – some post-independence issues have made some groups perpetual supporters of certain political parties and it is almost impossible to change such sentiments. For example, there is a family in the Sunyani area (name withheld) that was blessed with a resourceful Patriach. He was accused of murder, arrested and detained. For what followed, your guess is as good as mine. All their family lands and other assets were seized and since the 80s, the family is yet to recover from that unfortunate loss or see some compensation. Such historical antecedents have the tendency to shape the political leanings of families or groups that suffered similar fates in the past.
- Economic issues – the refrain “we don’t eat roads” is a classical example of how unfavourable economic situation can impact the outcome of elections. Often, opposition elements highlight the devastating impact of the economic situation, and label government an under-performer to court public disaffection.
- Topical issues of national concern – matters that are considered sensitive have a way of influencing the outcome of elections. People may choose to be vocal or silent but respond to those issues decisively at the polls. A case in point is galamsey. It affected the NDC in 2016, it affected the NPP in 2024 and it will negatively impact the NDC in 2028 if not addressed.
- Geographical attachments to political traditions – the average person born in Kumasi is likely to support NPP. Similarly, the average person born in Ho is likely to support NDC. These matters are trite.
- Intra-party wrangling – the internal issues of a party can significantly impact the outcome of elections, particularly parliamentary elections. Should a party fail to organize a free, fair and transparent internal election, it may be almost impossible to curb fallouts from such processes as has been observed in a number of parliamentary elections.
However, in assessing the outcome of Presidential and Parliamentary elections of a given area, we must not take the bait of running conclusions on the face value, no matter how enticing, without delving deeper into all issues at play.
What happened in Assin South Constituency in 2024 is no different from what happened in Lawra Constituency in 2016. As a student of political history and research, it is my opinion (supported by data) that the role of Independent Candidates significantly impacted the aforementioned Parliamentary Elections. In the Lawra scenario, Abu Samsom who run independent following an acrimonious NDC parliamentary primaries polled 5,651 votes (25.74%). Bede Ziedeng, the NDC parliamentary candidate on the other hand polled 7,476 votes (34.05%) while the NPP’s Anthony Karbo won the seat with 8,704 votes (39.64%).
The votes of the NDC in real terms (split between Ziedeng and Samsom) was approximately 59%, not far from the 54.60% polled by John Dramani Mahama, NDC Presidential Candidate. Nana Akufo-Addo also polled 38.42% (close to Karbo’s 39.64%).
In 2020 when the NDC resolved its internal issues and no independent candidate showed up, Bede Ziedeng polled 55.87% while Anthony Karbo polled 44.13%. Similarly, John Mahama polled 60.24% while Nana Akufo-Addo of the NPP polled 38.20%.
In the Assin South Constituency, the 2024 parliamentary election followed a similar trend as has been described above. John Ntim Fordjour, parliamentary candidate for the NPP polled 38.61%, Stephen Kofi Baidoo Jnr. of the NDC polled 34.61% and Damtse Joseph Kofi (pro-NPP Independent Candidate) polled 26.78%.
What this means is that the real performance of the NPP (though arguable) for the Parliamentary election is approximately 64% compared to the party’s performance for the presidential election (46.68%). Interestingly, Damtse outperformed the NDC parliamentary candidate in 2020 (36.22%) placing second to Ntim Fordjour (39.25%) with the NDC’s Nicholas Baffoe behind (23.38%).
It needs stating that in 2016 and 2020, the NPP recorded 62.50% and 62.22% respectively for presidential, which are both not far from the real parliamentary performance (64%) indicated above. The NDC also recorded 35.77% and 35.06% respectively for presidential for the same period.
Taking cognizance of local context, the general notion is that parliamentary performance impact presidential performance. The data suggests that while the NDC increased in presidential votes (35.06% to 50.56%) in 2024 presidential election, the NPP declined from 62.22% to 46.68% (15.54% loss).
While it is very easy and simplistic to run with narratives that appear plausible on the face value, the imperativeness of an in-to-to analysis goes without saying. That said, the NPP’s reduction in votes in Assin South Constituency for both Parliamentary and Presidential and the juxtaposition of both (38.1% and 46.68%) must be done on the back of a proper scientific and data-driven study.
Comparing the NPP’s own performance in the Assin South Constituency in 2020 to 2024, the data indicates that the Party recorded a net loss of 0.64% for Parliamentary and 15.54% for Presidential.
Source: George Sarpong NPP Communications team Member
